Bayesian Updating: Projecting the NFL's Young QBs
There’s a lot of talk in football circles, fantasy football circles specifically, about regression and how smaller samples might not indicate what to expect in the future. What’s difficult to know is how much regression we should expect, and what exactly constitutes a small sample. Better yet, there is little to no discussion of how to quantify the effect of the small sample based on exactly how small it is.
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